Summary: A World of Certain Uncertainties
Despite speculation to the contrary, the UK has not “collapsed” since the referendum result was announced, not yet at least. Distress is palpable but it is also largely emotional rather than real or linked to actual assets and a need to trade or move. Some prices have been chipped or deals delayed but those waiting for blood on the streets have longer to wait.
There is a clear warning of course that populist outcomes can prevail, but markets will at least have to wait and see what happens after the summer before a detailed view can form: when the UK’s new Prime Minister will have had time to set the country’s agenda for negotiations and EU leaders will also have had time to reflect on the vote and the need for reform.
The referendum result does nonetheless pose more new questions than it answers and clearly brings a significant downside risk not just for the UK but also for the rest of Europe and beyond. The likely course of events is still very unclear though and for many it is too early to reach conclusions beyond the need to proceed with caution, be alert to risk, hedge exposures and focus on the fundamentals that make property work for the long term.
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